Monday 24 December 2018

Caution: beautiful weather after stormy period is particularly accident prone

The forecasts of the ZAMG weather service were correct. There has been much rainfall and snowfall in far reaching regions of Tirol. In addition, storm-strength NW winds were blowing in many regions at high altitude.

All in all over the last few days in the western regions of the land, there was at least 50 cm of fresh snow registered at high altitude, frequently 70 cm in the southwestern regions, and from place to place as much as 100 cm.

Disparites in overall snow depth. Some weather stations are at altitudes where there was persistent rainfall.

Precipitation distribution from 23.12 to 24.12, morning, for comparison
The rise in temperatures (rainfall up to 2000 to 2600 m) combined with precipitation and snowfall together with storm winds have weakened the snowpack. Up to intermediate altitudes, increasingly frequent wet unbonded-snow and glide-snow avalanches were reported. At high altitudes, naturally triggered avalanches released. These were large-sized,  triggered in all aspects, primarily in the western and southwestern regions of the land. The major activity was between yesterday 23.12 and today, 24.12, during the morning.


The weak layer was the graupel registered over wide-ranging areas yesterday on 23.12 . In addition, the faceted crystals near the crusts also played a role in the release of slab avalanches (sh. Schneeprofile).
The fact that some slab avalanches were also triggered on south-facing slopes at altitudes between 2300 and 2700 m points to the generation of danger pattern "cold on warm" since the beginning of December.

Upshot: particularly at altitudes between about 2200 and 2700 m in the middle part of the snowpack, or else near ground level, there are persistent weak layers, i.e. the beginning of an old-snow problem, which could prove triggerable over the coming few days. At higher altitudes, the covered (that is, drifted) powder snow could prove to be a weak layer, particularly adjacent to ridgelines on very steep, wind-protected slopes. Atop these weak layers, deep, brittle drifted masses have been deposited which increasingly in transitions from shallow to deep snow and, in general, wherever the snow is shallow, can be triggered.

Due to the quite widespread danger zones and the period of pleasant weather conditions which is being forecast over the Christmas holidays, we expect heightened likelihood of avalanche accidents. Today, on 24.12, we were informed at headquarters of one in Söll and one in the Axamer Lizum, the latter near to a ridgeline in very steep terrain on an east-facing slope at about 2200 m. Both proved relatively harmless, according to our current information. We hope these avalanche releases will inspire backcountry skiers to ski defensively on Christmas Day and in the days following. Don’t forget: experience shows that the first day of pleasant weather following a stormy period is particularly prone to accidents.