The avalanche situation in the Eastern Alps is currently quite tense. From the Ybbstal Alps in Lower Austria all the way to the Bregenzerwald in Vorarlberg, high avalanche danger (level 4) prevails over widespread areas above the timberline.
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| High avalanche danger, level 4, in far-reaching parts of Austria (www.lawinen.at) |
There has been 100 cm of fresh snow registered over widespread areas in North Tirol during the last few days. Significantly more in some regions, e.g. Waidring and Kitzbühel Alps, Hohe Tauern and Karwendel. In the southern regions of East Tirol there was only a few centimeters of fresh snow registered. The snowfall level was predominantly at the valley floor. Precipitation was accompanied by storm-strength NW winds, leading to massive snow transport of the loosely-packed fresh snow everywhere above the treeline.
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| Snow depths in North Tirol grew about 100 cm over the last eight days. |
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| At the observation stations in Boden and on the Northern Massif, snow depths are far above average currently (since 1960, or 1973). More than 200 cm of fresh snow has been registered in the Northern Massif since 30 December. Such a magnitude of snowfall has never before (since 1973) been measured at such an early juncture of the season. |
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Indicative of the current weather situation in North Tirol in recent days: lots of fresh snow and strong winds.
Weather station Breiter Grieskogel, Grieskogel group. |
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| Intensive snowfall has been observed down to low lying areas during the last few days. (photo: 04.01.2019) |
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| Wintery conditions also in the western sector of the Tux Alps (photo: 06.01.2019) |
As a consequence of intensive snow transport, avalanche danger levels also increased throughout North Tirol, as well as in the Hohe Tauern, to level 4: High. Numerous roads had to be closed. Also lifts were shut down because of the inordinately strong winds.
The large-sized avalanches we are aware of, e.g. in the Zillertal Alps, presumably fractured inside the fresh snow and fresh snowdrifts. On 5 January we received the report of an avalanche release on the Fernpass road. As was demonstrated upon closer inspection, this was actually a snowslide caused by nearby trees unloading their burden of snow onto the ground.
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| Massive snow transport generated wide-ranging snowdrift accumulations above the timberline. Slab avalanches often released inside the layers of fresh snow and fresh snowdrifts. Gurgler group (photo: 07.01.2019). |
The next significant front will reach us tomorrow, Tuesday, 8 January 2019. Amounts of 50-120 cm of fresh snow can be expected as a result of heavy precipitation between Tuesday morning and Thursday morning. Most of the precipitation is expected to fall north of the Inn and in the western regions of North Tirol. The snowfall level will be at approximately 1000 m to start with, then on Tuesday night drop down to low lying areas. The precipitation will again be accompanied by storm-strength NW winds, which in turn will bring about enormous snow transport.
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| Lots of snow and wind: on crests, huge cornices can be expected to form. (photo: 04.01.2019) |
When the next front arrives, the already prevalent danger pattern will alter only very slightly. As a result of the precipitation and strong-to-stormy NW winds, fresh and trigger-sensitive snowdrift accumulations will form anew starting on Tuesday morning, 8 January 2019. These drifted masses will trigger naturally in leeward zones behind crests and terrain edges in particular, as medium-sized, in the major areas of precipitation also large-sized, in isolated cases even very large-sized avalanches.
Extremely large-sized avalanches currently appear quite unlikely due to the current snowpack structure, since no area-wide, cohesive, more deeply embedded weak layers exist from which slab avalanches could fracture.
On steep grass-covered slopes, in addition, glide-snow avalanches can be expected at any time of day or night. These releases can also grow to large size, due to the enormous snow depths currently. Areas below glide cracks in the snowpack surface should be consequently avoided.
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| Snow block glided away as a consequence of a cornice breaking. (photo: 07.01.2019) |
The current snow and avalanche situation can be attributed to an unfavourable, quite stable large-scale weather zone: a formidable high over western Europe and the Atlantic together with a low in the north are sending moist air masses from the Atlantic in the northwest towards the Alps. These air masses are, in turn, bringing intensive precipitation. According to meteorologists, it now appears likely that this pattern will persist over the next few weeks and bring more fronts our way.
Initially, no significant relaxation of the situation is in view.
