By Tuesday morning, 15.01, up to 150 cm of fresh snow is forecast in western regions of North Tirol. Elsewhere 50-90 cm of fresh snow is expected widespread. The precipitation will come with great intensity, accompanied by storm-strengh NW winds.
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| Forecast fresh snow by Tuesday morning, 15.01, including settling. |
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| Lots of fresh snow forecast in the Silvretta region. Winds will be strong. |
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| Storm-strength NW winds ensure wide-ranging snow transport of the fresh snow throughout the land. |
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| Temporary rise in temperatures on Sunday night, 14.01. (©meteoblue) |
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| At Plojen weather station in the Samnaun group, nearly 50 cm of fresh snow was registered by 5:00 pm today, Sunday 13.01. Winds were blowing at strong velocity in many places. |
As a result of the snowfall intensity and temporarily higher temperatures, especially on Sunday night (14.01), high naturally triggered avalanche activity is expected. Primarily in the major areas of precipitation, avalanche danger level 5, Very High, is possible, with very large, in isolated cases
extremely large avalanches possible. This is particularly the case in high altitude starting zones which lie in leeward areas. Observers from Ausserfern have already reported increasingly frequent naturally triggered avalanches during the evening of 13.01.
As the snowfall level ascends to approximately 1400 m, we also expect a significant increase in glide-snow activity at low and intermediate altitudes
Snowpack layering
The brief interim of pleasant weather on Friday, 11.01, permitted us to sharpen our understanding of the current snowpack layering.
As already reported in earlier blog entries, no area-wide, trigger-sensitive weak layers are evident in the lower section of the snowpack. Only one layer of faceted snow crystals near a melt-freeze crust from 06 December might still exist between 2200 and 2700 m. In North Tirol and in northern regions of East Tirol, this weak layer should now be heavily covered over, only triggerable by the weight of another releasing avalanche.
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| About 30 cm above the ground, there are faceted snow crystals near a melt-freeze crust (06.12.2018) evident. This weak layer is covered over by deep layers, but can potentially still be triggered by large additional loading. |
In the upper section of the snowpack in southern regions between 1600 and 2100 m, faceted crystals have also formed, partly near a melt-freeze crust, in accordance with
Danger Pattern 4 (cold on warm - warm on cold) presumably around the 8th of January. This weak layer was covered by fresh snow in the most recent round of precipitation. Fracturing a slab avalanche from this layer due to the weight of fresh snow on the snowpack is quite possible.
Apart from the above-described layers of faceted snow crystals, the light, fluffy snowfall which fell on Friday, 11.01 and Saturday 12.01 is of particular importance for slab avalanches: it is a particularly trigger-sensitive weak layer and can be easily triggered at all altitudes and in all aspects, even below the timberline.
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| The small amounts of snowfall on Friday night, 12.01, were deposited as loosely-packed, light and fluffy snow. Now covered, this snow is a particularly trigger-sensitive weak layer. |
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| Naturally triggered avalanches on house roofs in St. Johann in Tirol: the light, fluffy snow is here a weak layer for the fresh snow which fell on Saturday night, 13.01. (photo: 13.01.2019) |
Yesterday, Saturday 12.01, our Avalanche Warning Service team member Christoph attempted to test the fracture propagation tendencies of the light, fluffy snow beneath the snowdrifts on the Seegrube:
In general, current conditions for winter sports in outlying terrain are quite unfavourable. On slopes with less than 30° gradient there is hardly any pleasure in skiing down through the knee-deep snow. In forested terrain, the danger of branches breaking off and trees falling is added to the negative overall balance. Also the “deep snow risk” needs to be taken into consideration, as mentioned in the last
Blog . In the regions where snowfall has been heaviest, particularly near trees, the risk of sinking meter-deep into the snow is also a threat.
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| Many trees are cloaked in a mantle of snow, providing the wind with an ample surface to blow against. Ongoing storm winds will presumably cause much damage to the forests. (photo: 11.01.2019) |
The positive side: the avalanche situation will improve very rapidly following the current round of precipitation. Thereafter, we expect relatively safe and good conditions for backcountry ski touring.
Below, a few impressions from the last few days:
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| Stamina test for weather stations (photo: 11.01.2019) |
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| Avalanche protection measures are already burdened to the brim in some places. Region Wilder Kaiser. (photo: 11.01.2019) |
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| Deep wintery conditions on the Seegrube (1905 m) above Innsbruck. Snow depths are over 4 meters. (photo: 11.01.2019) |
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| St. Valentine’s high alpine chapel in the Zillergrund is hardly recognizable. (photo: 12.01.2019) |
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| Heavy wind impact above the timberline. Füssener Jöchle. Allgäu Alps. (photo: 12.01.2019) |
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| Heavy snow padding on a trailside crucifix below Pfoner Kreuzjöchl. (photo: 12.01.2019) |
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| Fracture of a very large avalanche in the eastern Lechtal Alps. The avalanche triggered naturally during the precipitation of 9-11 January. (photo: 12.01.2019) |
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| This avalanche plummeted over the Brand-Mitteregg snow shed on the state road between Berwang and Manlos, causing damages to the forest. (photo: 12.01.2019) |
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| Slab avalanche on the Schartenkogel, north-slope, 2200 m. The snowdrift accumulation was presumably triggered when a cornice broke. (photo: 12.01.2019) |
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| Presumably a glide-snow avalanche which unleashed as a powder-cloud avalanche. Northern Zillertal Alps. (photo: 12.01.2019) |
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| Numerous covered glide-snow avalanche fractures in northern regions. (photo: 11.01.2019) |
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| Intense glide-snow activity, also in the Allgäu Alps. (photo: 12.01.2019) |
