Thursday, 21 January 2021

Tense avalanche situation for winter sports enthusiasts. Avalanche analysis and outlook.

First things first: the delicate, treacherous avalanche situation will persist for winter sports enthusiasts. So we continue to advise: high restraint in outlying terrain!


Numerous reports from winter sports enthusiasts, ardent snowpack examinations and meticulous accident analysis all confirm, unfortunately, that the avalanche situation for winter sports enthusiasts remains very tense. Making things worse, the weather forecast of ZAMG Weather Service foresees turbulent weather conditions approaching.



An important foundation of our work: snowpack examination including stability tests. Above, avalanche commission members in the Arlberg region examine the snowpack near avalanche fracture zones. The tests on southwest-facing slopes at 2150 m showed a snowpack highly prone to triggering.
(photo: 16.01.2021)


Stability tests nearly a week later: fractures propagate frequently through an entire block, and mostly with only minimum additional loading, indicating an ongoingly trigger-sensitive snowpack.         Axamer Lizum  (photo: 21.01.2021)


Overview of recent avalanche releases

As mentioned in recent blogs, numerous avalanches released naturally last week or were triggered by winter sports enthusiasts. Here is an overview of the avalanches involving persons we are aware of.


Highly unusual: recently reported avalanches in Tirol involving persons. To date, two persons suffered injuries, one of them is in critical condition.


Short analysis of the avalanche accident on 20.01.2021 on the Wanglspitze in the eastern Tux Alps


Today, on 21 January, we traveled to the avalanche accident site together with the Alpine Police and one of our observers. This avalanche was a slab release. It was approximately 400 m long and 35 m wide, had an average fracture depth of 30 cm. The fracture area is at 2270 m altitude on an east-facing slope. The avalanche terrain is extremely steep (gradient between 40 and 45°).

The avalanche was triggered just after 11:30 am on 20 January at an altitude of 2270 m when a person was in the descent. The person was swept along and buried in a gully about 2 metres deep. The accompanying friends rushed swiftly to the site and were able to dig out the buried person in about 30 minutes. Efforts were made at resuscitation while the person was being flown to the hospital. On 19.01 a slab had already released just 100 metres altitude below this fracture. Also then, skiers were in the descent at the time. No one was injured.


Avalanche Wanglspitze: avalanche accident on 20.01.2021 in magenta. Additional slab on 19.01.2021 in turquoise


Plummet zone of avalanche, including point of burial (photo: 21.01.2021)


The steepest point in the avalanche track (photo: 21.01.2021)




Snow profile in fracture zone: visible are the shallow masses of fresh snow and snowdrifts. Beneath those are very loosely-packed, faceted crystals - the weak layer. Below that, the snowpack becomes more compact. (photo: 21.01.2021)



Snow profile from an undisturbed spot orographically right of the avalanche track about 100 metres of altitude below the fracture. Visible: the loosely-packed, faceted layer which formed during the long period of low temperatures. At the site, this layer was extremely prone to triggering.


Other avalanches


Pictures are known to be worth more than a thousand words. Below, a selection of photographs recently sent to us of avalanches involving persons. There were no injuries in any of them.


Avalanche Pleisen - Axamer Lizum - northern Stubai Alps (photo: 15.01.2021)



Avalanche Diasalpe - eastern Verwall Massif (photo: 16.01.2021)



Avalanche Finstertal-Staumauer - northern Stubai Alps (photo: 16.01.2021)



Avalanche Schönberglspitze - central East Tirol (photo: 16.01.2021)


Avalanche Hafelekar direttissima - Karwendel (photo: 19.01.2021)



Avalanches Nauders - Tscheyegg - Glockturm Massif. These avalanches were remotely triggered from a spot in the upper third of the picture. (photo: 19.01.2021)



Avalanche Roter Kogel - northern Stubai Alps. One person was in the ascent, traversed on skins and triggered the avalanche remotely. (photo: 20.01.2021)



Avalanche Roter Kogel - northern Stubai Alps. In the circle is the person who remotely triggered both avalanches. Compare with photograph above. (photo: 20.01.2021)



Avalanche Wankspitze - Mieming Massif (photo: 21.01.2021)


As a result of storm-strength winds and fresh snow, again more naturally triggered avalanches


Currently, reports are accumulating of naturally triggered avalanches due to additional loading of the fresh fallen snow. To blame: the strong to storm-strength southerly foehn wind, together with the unfavourable snowpack layering. Slab avalanches can grow to large size due to area-wide weak layers.

Vast snow transport in the mountains. eastern Tux Alps (photo: 21.01.2021)


Two days earlier, all was still white, now utterly windblown. The foehn leaves no snowflake unturned.  Bleispitze - Ausserfern (photo: 21.01.2021)


Naturally triggered slab avalanche on 21.01.2021 due to snow transport. Hönig - Berwang - Ausserfern (photo: 21.01.2021)


Naturally triggered slab avalanche Senderstal on 21.01.2021 - northern Stubai Alps (photo: 21.01.2021)


Things remain tense. For winter sports enthusiasts: dangerous.

A glimpse at the weather stations shows, among other things, the rather turbulent weather development thus far. ZAMG forecasts also show that turbulent conditions aren’t over yet. Avalanche danger is unchanged: still a “tense level 3.” The outlook: higher danger still, again approaching Danger Level 4.


Seegrube weather station, where the heaviest snowfall was registered this last week.
In a nutshell: variable winds, variable temperatures. Currently stormy, quite warm.


Snowfall forecast for the coming days: a southerly air current will bring another batch of fresh snow to southern regions.


Tense wind forecast: a powerful southerly air current persists in eastern regions; a new perturbance is pushing eastward from the northwest


The upshot: if avalanches are the enigma, the terrain is usually the solution.


During a treacherous avalanche phase, backcountry tours in more moderate terrain are the answer (of course taking into consideration avalanche starting zones to avoid risks of remotely triggered or naturally triggered avalanches). The advantage: no worries, utterly enjoyable tours. 


One last point at the end of the blog: due to higher temperatures in the last few days, the snowpack at low and intermediate altitudes has become less prone to triggering. The outlook is also better at that altitude. But above the timberline, things rapidly turn critical.